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BOMA NEWS - December 9, 2025

Does 2026 See the Return of the Tenant?

Isn’t it truly time to retire the “return to office” debate. Please say it is. Don’t misunderstand this, no one is lining up to do a massive rewind to 2019 and pretend nothing happened. There is no world where every employee dutifully marches back to cubicle land five days a week. But what is taking shape is something more intentional, a recalibration of how organizations see the space they are investing in. Is it thoughtful, does it engage their people, and is it designed to function the way modern teams need them to? We are only going to see more of this in 2026.

Hybrid work has normalized to three or four in-office days, and since we’re no longer waiting for everyone to come back to the office in that pre-COVID way, this allows corporate real estate teams to make longer term decision about the type of space required including shared amenities. This stability will also create some consistency in the leasing market, especially for office space particularly AAA and AA buildings. Management firms who have invested in tenant flexibility, wellness and experience will emerge as the clear winners in 2026.

A trend that will no doubt continue is the redefinition of the office space. Once a place for solo tasks – see office cubicles – is being redefined as a place for social and team thinking. There has been a clear shift in demand for spaces that support team collaboration, onboarding activities, and innovation. Things that fell by the wayside during the COVID days and immediately afterwards. This shift has resulted in a change in how offices are configured. Neighbourhoods have replaced cubicles, hoteling has replaced assigned seating, café lounges that are as good for meetings as they are for a quick lunch with teammates. There is a renewed emphasis on office wellness, better air quality, acoustics and biophilic design. And it’s not a new thing, it’s long been known that humans work better when the feel connected, supported and grounded.

Even if we are in a reflective mood in terms of investing in tenant wellness, modern tech is steering the way. Data-driven decision-making is reshaping what goes into today’s leases and the conversations around them. Engaged tenants are requesting real-time occupancy insights, smart building features and digital tools that can help support a more inclusive, and productive workspace. This includes a stronger digital infrastructure, consistent Wi-Fi, secure access control, sensors that support space planning and intelligent building systems. Buildings that can demonstrate this have a clear competitive advantage. “Smart” is no longer a nice-to-have, it’s table stakes. And AI-powered platforms are seemingly days away from defining what “Smart” is.

This has touched the tenant experience and will one day define it, but there is some unexpected tenant behaviour that is showing up in leasing conversations. Organizations are looking at a building’s broader ecosystem – prioritizing a strong retail presence, urban character and transit connectivity. They’re also looking for amenities that extend beyond fitness centers and rooftop terraces. These include childcare facilities, wellness rooms, secure bike storage, and even pet-friendly facilities. This is driving landlords to rethink amenities as strategic investments that support workforce attraction and retention. This has become a top priority for employer’s challenges with a hyper competitive job market.

Both landlords and tenants know that none of this comes without a price, so for AAA and AA buildings tenants are willing to pay for quality. This shift is the understanding that this is not an investment in prestige but in operational reliability, energy performance and a shift towards resilience. Tenants want healthy buildings with modern systems, low risk of downtime, credible

sustainability credentials, and transparent performance data. Owners offering this package are commanding higher rents and stronger retention.

There is a “ying” to this “yang” as people return to the office. Older buildings that have not invested either physically or digitally are at the risk. This includes a large swath of mid-tier buildings that are facing this challenge. The question owners and investors are asking whether they should strategically reposition, invest in deep retrofits, flexible floorplates, advanced building systems, sustainability leadership, strong amenities, and a tenant-first operating model. Or do the portfolio owners accept that they will become stranded assets.

Office demand will be the story of 2026, but it will focus on clarity, not recovery. Tenants are returning, but not to a pre-COVID office place. The new version will support collaboration, support culture and performance. The winners will be the building owners who take advantage of this shift in consciousness and respond with office environments that embrace this new vision and make the commute worthwhile.

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Regulators Warn of Hidden Vulnerabilities in $12tn Commercial Property Market

Martin Arnold in New York

Financial Stability Board flags high debt, liquidity mismatches and lack of data on banks’ exposure

The world’s financial stability watchdog has called for regulators to tackle “vulnerabilities” in the $12tn commercial property market stemming from high levels of debt, liquidity mismatches and a lack of data on banks’ exposure to the sector. The Financial Stability Board said the commercial property market was more volatile than other assets and could be hit by further declines in demand for offices and retail space, as well as by extreme weather and energy efficiency regulations. The warning by the FSB on Thursday comes after commercial property investors went through a period of stress, with demand for offices hit by an increase in remote working in the pandemic and pressure on financing structures from higher interest rates.

 

Office Slump Hits Seattle Hard

Christine Clarridge

Seattle leads the nation in office rent declines as vacancies climb to record highs, according to a November CoStar analysis.

Why it matters: Seattle’s office slump is reshaping the region’s commercial real estate landscape — with long-term implications for property values, city tax revenues and the future of downtown.

State of play: Elliott Krivenko, senior market analyst at CoStar, tells Axios the steep drop in leasing demand and rent is already undermining valuations, and true recovery may still be years away.

By the numbers: The office vacancy rate for the region stands at 17.3% with about 43 million square feet listed for sale or lease, per CoStar, and it’s projected to peak at 18.3% in 2026. 

 

Improvement in Market Conditions in Q3 2025

In its August 2025 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada reported that Canadian employment levels declined for the second consecutive month, with a decrease of 66,000 jobs, extending the decline witnessed in July of 41,000. With this decrease the unemployment rate climbed to 7.1%; its highest level since May 2016 (excluding 2020 & 2021). Employment fell by 23,000 in the transportation and warehousing sector in August, which offset a similar increase in July. On a year-over-year basis employment in this sector remains stable. Employment also decreased in manufacturing, falling by 19,000, and has declined by 58,000 since January 2025.

The overall Canadian industrial vacancy rate stabilized at 5.4% in Q3 2025, ending the streak of 12 consecutive quarters of vacancy increases. The majority of the Canadian markets followed suit, with either unchanged vacancy or just minor 10-20 basis point (bps) fluctuations from the prior quarter.

Absorption surged back into positive territory in Q3 2025, hitting just over 2.9 million square feet (msf) nationally—marking the strongest quarterly performance since Q3 2023 and playing a pivotal role in halting the climb in industrial vacancy that has been ongoing since Q3 2022. While several major markets posted negative absorption this quarter, including Vancouver and Montreal, which together combined for nearly 1.6 msf of negative absorption, Toronto single-handedly offset this, recording a notable 3.6 msf of positive absorption—its highest quarterly tally since Q4 2022—highlighting its significant influence on national fundamentals.